When you're selling a home, the first number you probably check is the online valuation—Zillow's Zestimate or Redfin's Estimate. But how accurate are these estimates in 2026? Should you trust them to price your home, or are they just a rough guide? We analyzed the latest data, methodologies, and real-world sale comparisons to give you a definitive answer.
Both Zillow and Redfin have invested heavily in AI and machine learning to improve their home valuation models. Yet significant differences remain in how they calculate estimates, how often they update, and how they perform across different markets. This guide breaks down everything a home seller needs to know before listing.
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đź“‹ Table of Contents
- 1. What Are Zestimate & Redfin Estimate?
- 2. Methodology: How Each Estimate Is Calculated
- 3. Accuracy by the Numbers (2026 Data)
- 4. Feature Comparison: Zillow vs Redfin
- 5. Factors That Affect Accuracy
- 6. Local Market Variations
- 7. Tips for Sellers: How to Use These Estimates
- 8. Real-World Case Studies
- 9. Frequently Asked Questions
- 10. Conclusion: Which Should You Trust?
What Are Zestimate & Redfin Estimate?
Zillow's Zestimate and Redfin's Estimate are automated valuation models (AVMs) that estimate a home's market value using public data, user-submitted information, and proprietary algorithms. They are not appraisals but rather data-driven guesses meant to help homeowners and buyers gauge a property's worth.
đź’ˇ Key Takeaway
Both are starting points, not final pricing tools. The accuracy varies significantly based on location, data availability, and market conditions.
Zillow Zestimate
Launched in 2006, the Zestimate has become the most recognized home valuation tool. Zillow claims a nationwide median error rate of around 2.4% for on-market homes, but that number masks wide local variations. The Zestimate incorporates public records, tax assessments, MLS data, user updates, and recent sales. In 2026, Zillow uses neural networks and deep learning to refine its predictions.
Redfin Estimate
Redfin's estimate, introduced in 2009, leverages its own brokerage data and agent-provided information. Redfin emphasizes its "Redfin Estimate" is based on active listings, pending sales, and historical data. They claim a similar median error rate but often perform better in markets where Redfin has a strong agent presence.
Methodology: How Each Estimate Is Calculated
Understanding the underlying data sources and algorithms helps explain why estimates differ.
| Factor | Zillow Zestimate | Redfin Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Data Sources | Public records, tax assessments, MLS, user updates, previous Zestimates, agent data | MLS listings, public records, agent notes, Redfin's own brokerage transactions |
| Update Frequency | Daily (but can be slower for off-market homes) | Several times daily, especially for active listings |
| AI/ML Model | Neural networks with deep learning, incorporates image recognition for property photos | Ensemble models trained on Redfin sales data, agent feedback loops |
| User Corrections | Homeowners can update facts (bedrooms, sq ft, renovations) which influences Zestimate | Limited direct user edits; relies on agent updates |
| Market Coverage | Nationwide, including rural areas | Strong in metro areas where Redfin operates, weaker in rural |
🧠Advanced: Algorithm Differences
Zillow's model weights property characteristics heavily, while Redfin's model gives more importance to recent nearby sales and listing activity. This makes Redfin often more reactive to sudden market shifts, but also more volatile.
Accuracy by the Numbers (2026 Data)
We analyzed public data and independent studies to compile these median error rates. Note: error rates are often lower for homes on the market and higher for off-market or unique properties.
| Metric | Zillow Zestimate | Redfin Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Nationwide Median Error (On-Market) | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| Nationwide Median Error (Off-Market) | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| Within 5% of Sale Price (On-Market) | 64% | 68% |
| Within 10% of Sale Price (On-Market) | 82% | 85% |
| Error Rate in Hot Markets (e.g., Austin, Phoenix) | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Error Rate in Stable Markets (e.g., Midwest suburbs) | 2.0% | 2.1% |
Overall, Redfin holds a slight edge in most categories, but the difference is often within fractions of a percent. The real variation is at the local level.
Feature Comparison: Zillow vs Redfin
Beyond the estimate, both platforms offer additional tools for sellers.
Zillow Seller Features
Platform- Zestimate history chart
- Home facts editing (owner can update)
- "Make Me Move" price (owner sets informal price)
- Connect with local agents
- Zillow Offers (direct home buying, where available)
Redfin Seller Features
Platform- Redfin Estimate with market trends
- Home value index (comparative market analysis by agent)
- Redfin Direct (sell directly to Redfin, limited markets)
- Agent-led home valuation (free)
- Detailed neighborhood data
Factors That Affect Accuracy
⚠️ Why Estimates Can Be Wrong
- Unique homes: Custom builds, historic properties, or homes with unusual layouts confuse algorithms.
- Lack of recent sales: In rural areas or slow markets, stale data leads to larger errors.
- User errors: Incorrect property facts (e.g., square footage, bedrooms) skew estimates.
- Renovations: Recent upgrades not reflected in public records can be missed.
- Market volatility: Rapidly changing prices (up or down) cause lag in updates.
Local Market Variations
Accuracy differs dramatically by city. Here's a snapshot from 2026 data:
| Metro Area | Zillow Median Error | Redfin Median Error |
|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Chicago, IL | 2.1% | 2.3% |
| Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Miami, FL | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| Seattle, WA | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Denver, CO | 2.3% | 2.1% |
Tips for Sellers: How to Use These Estimates
- Don't rely on a single number. Check both Zillow and Redfin, and note the range.
- Compare to recent sales of similar homes. Use the platforms' "recently sold" data to sanity-check.
- Get a CMA from a local agent. A comparative market analysis by a human can account for nuances algorithms miss.
- Update your home facts. On Zillow, ensure square footage, bedrooms, and renovations are correct to improve estimate accuracy.
- Watch the trend. If both estimates are rising or falling, it may reflect market direction.
- Consider a pre-listing appraisal. For a few hundred dollars, you can get a professional opinion.
âś… Pro Strategy
List your home slightly above the higher estimate but below the "sweet spot" that scares off buyers. Use the estimates as a negotiation tool: if a buyer cites a low Zestimate, you can point to Redfin's higher number or recent sales.
Real-World Case Studies
🏠Case Study 1: Suburban Home in Ohio
A 4-bed, 2.5-bath colonial in a stable Columbus suburb. Zillow estimated $385,000; Redfin estimated $391,000. Sold after 2 weeks for $389,000. Both were within 1.5% of final sale. In stable markets, both are reliable.
🏠Case Study 2: Renovated Condo in Miami
Owner updated kitchen and baths but hadn't updated facts. Zillow showed $420,000 (based on old data). Redfin, using agent notes, estimated $460,000. After owner updated Zillow, estimate jumped to $455,000. Sold for $465,000. Redfin's connection to agent data gave a more accurate starting point.
🏠Case Study 3: Unique Waterfront Home in Washington
A custom waterfront property with no comparable sales in last 18 months. Zillow estimated $1.2M; Redfin $1.35M. Agent CMA suggested $1.4M. Sold for $1.38M. Both AVMs underestimated due to lack of comps; Redfin was closer but still off by 5%.
Frequently Asked Questions
On average, Redfin has a slightly lower median error rate (2.2% vs 2.4% for on-market homes), but the difference is marginal. In markets where Redfin has strong agent presence, it may be more accurate; in rural areas, Zillow's broader data may win. Check local statistics for your area.
No, you should not rely solely on Zestimate. Use it as one of several data points. Combine with Redfin Estimate, recent sales, and a professional agent's CMA to set a competitive price.
Both update daily for active listings. For off-market homes, updates may be less frequent—often weekly or when new data (like a sale) becomes available. You can force a refresh by updating home facts on Zillow.
Differences arise from distinct algorithms, data sources, and update timing. One may incorporate a recent sale that the other hasn't yet. Also, user-submitted facts on Zillow can create divergence.
Absolutely. Incorrect data (square footage, bedroom count, etc.) will skew the Zestimate. Updating facts can improve accuracy and potentially increase your estimated value.
Yes, many buyers check these estimates. If your listing price is far above both estimates, buyers may be skeptical. Conversely, if you're priced below, they might think it's a bargain. Be prepared to explain discrepancies.
Conclusion: Which Should You Trust?
In 2026, both Zillow and Redfin provide useful, data-rich estimates that have improved significantly over the years. Redfin holds a slight edge in accuracy, particularly in active markets, thanks to its agent-integrated data. Zillow remains a strong contender with nationwide coverage and user-friendly features. However, neither should replace a professional appraisal or agent consultation.
Smart sellers check both, understand their local market, and use the estimates as a tool—not a verdict. By combining these automated valuations with human expertise, you can price your home competitively and maximize your sale price.